Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes

Geon-Il Kim, Ji-Hoon Oh, Na-Yeon Shin, Soon-Il An, Sang-Wook Yeh, Jongsoo Shin and Jong-Seong Kug ()
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Geon-Il Kim: Seoul National University
Ji-Hoon Oh: Seoul National University
Na-Yeon Shin: Seoul National University
Soon-Il An: Yonsei University
Sang-Wook Yeh: Hanyang University
Jongsoo Shin: Woods Hole
Jong-Seong Kug: Seoul National University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The deep ocean, a vast thermal reservoir, absorbs excess heat under greenhouse warming, which ultimately regulates the Earth’s surface climate. Even if CO2 emissions are successfully reduced, the stored heat will gradually be released, resulting in a particular pattern of ocean warming. Here, we show that deep ocean warming will lead to El Niño-like ocean warming and resultant increased precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific with southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Consequently, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation shifts eastward, intensifying Eastern Pacific El Niño events. In particular, the deep ocean warming could increase convective extreme El Niño events by 40 to 80% relative to the current climate. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic greenhouse warming will have a prolonged impact on El Niño variability through delayed deep ocean warming, even if CO2 stabilization is achieved.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50663-9

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