Rethinking time-lagged emissions and abatement potential of fluorocarbons in the post-Kigali Amendment era

Heping Liu, Huabo Duan (), Ning Zhang, Yin Ma, Gang Liu, Travis Reed Miller, Ruichang Mao, Ming Xu, Jinhui Li and Jiakuan Yang ()
Additional contact information
Heping Liu: Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology
Huabo Duan: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Ning Zhang: Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development (IOER)
Yin Ma: Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology
Gang Liu: Peking University
Travis Reed Miller: University of Maine
Ruichang Mao: Technical University of Denmark
Ming Xu: Tsinghua University
Jinhui Li: Tsinghua University
Jiakuan Yang: Huazhong University of Science and Technology

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract The Montreal Protocol has been successful in safeguarding the ozone layer and curbing climate change. However, accurately estimating and reducing the time-lagged emissions of ozone-depleting substances or their substitutes, such as produced but not-yet-emitted fluorocarbon banks, remains a significant challenge. Here, we use a dynamic material flow analysis model to characterize the global stocks and flows of two fluorocarbon categories, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), from 1986 to 2060. We assess emission pathways, time-lagged emission sizes, and potential abatement measures throughout different life cycle stages while focusing on the role of banked fluorocarbons in global and regional decarbonization efforts in the post-Kigali Amendment era. Although fluorocarbon releases are expected to decline, the cumulative global warming potential (GWP)-weighted emissions of HCFCs and HFCs are significant; these will be 6.4 (±1.2) and 14.8 (±2.5) gigatons CO2-equivalent, respectively, in 2022–2060 in our business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Scenario analysis demonstrates that implementing currently available best environmental practices in developed economies can reduce cumulative GWP-weighted emissions by up to 45% compared with the BAU scenario.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51113-2 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-51113-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51113-2

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().