Future hydrogen economies imply environmental trade-offs and a supply-demand mismatch

Tom Terlouw (), Lorenzo Rosa, Christian Bauer and Russell McKenna ()
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Tom Terlouw: ETH Zurich
Lorenzo Rosa: Carnegie Institution for Science
Christian Bauer: Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis
Russell McKenna: ETH Zurich

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Hydrogen will play a key role in decarbonizing economies. Here, we quantify the costs and environmental impacts of possible large-scale hydrogen economies, using four prospective hydrogen demand scenarios for 2050 ranging from 111–614 megatonne H2 year−1. Our findings confirm that renewable (solar photovoltaic and wind) electrolytic hydrogen production generates at least 50–90% fewer greenhouse gas emissions than fossil-fuel-based counterparts without carbon capture and storage. However, electrolytic hydrogen production could still result in considerable environmental burdens, which requires reassessing the concept of green hydrogen. Our global analysis highlights a few salient points: (i) a mismatch between economical hydrogen production and hydrogen demand across continents seems likely; (ii) region-specific limitations are inevitable since possibly more than 60% of large hydrogen production potentials are concentrated in water-scarce regions; and (iii) upscaling electrolytic hydrogen production could be limited by renewable power generation and natural resource potentials.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51251-7

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