Substantial nitrogen abatement accompanying decarbonization suppresses terrestrial carbon sinks in China

Fang Shang, Mingxu Liu, Yu Song (), Xingjie Lu (), Qiang Zhang, Hitoshi Matsui, Lingli Liu, Aijun Ding, Xin Huang, Xuejun Liu, Junji Cao, Zifa Wang, Yongjiu Dai, Ling Kang, Xuhui Cai, Hongsheng Zhang and Tong Zhu ()
Additional contact information
Fang Shang: Peking University
Mingxu Liu: Peking University
Yu Song: Peking University
Xingjie Lu: Sun Yat-sen University
Qiang Zhang: Tsinghua University
Hitoshi Matsui: Nagoya University
Lingli Liu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Aijun Ding: Nanjing University
Xin Huang: Nanjing University
Xuejun Liu: China Agricultural University
Junji Cao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zifa Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yongjiu Dai: Sun Yat-sen University
Ling Kang: Peking University
Xuhui Cai: Peking University
Hongsheng Zhang: Peking University
Tong Zhu: Peking University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract China faces challenges in reaching its carbon neutrality goal by the year 2060 to meet the Paris Agreement and improving air quality simultaneously. Dramatic nitrogen emission reductions will be brought by this ambitious target, yet their impact on the natural ecosystem is not clear. Here, by combining two atmospheric chemistry models and two process-based terrestrial ecosystem models constrained using nationwide measurements, we show that atmospheric nitrogen deposition in China’s terrestrial land will decrease by 44–57% following two emission control scenarios including one aiming at carbon neutrality. They consequently result in a pronounced shrinkage in terrestrial net ecosystem production, by 11–20% depending on models and emission scenarios. Our results indicate that the nitrogen emission reductions accompanying decarbonization would undermine natural carbon sinks and in turn set back progress toward carbon neutrality. This unintended impact calls for great concern about the trade-offs between nitrogen management and carbon neutrality.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52152-5

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