Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere

Fenying Cai, Caihong Liu, Dieter Gerten, Song Yang (), Tuantuan Zhang (), Kaiwen Li and Jürgen Kurths
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Fenying Cai: Member of the Leibniz Association
Caihong Liu: Vrije University Amsterdam
Dieter Gerten: Member of the Leibniz Association
Song Yang: Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Tuantuan Zhang: Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Kaiwen Li: Member of the Leibniz Association
Jürgen Kurths: Member of the Leibniz Association

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Pronounced spatial disparities in heatwave trends are bound up with a diversity of atmospheric signals with complex variations, including different phases and wavenumbers. However, assessing their relationships quantitatively remains a challenging problem. Here, we use a network-searching approach to identify the strengths of heatwave-related atmospheric teleconnections (AT) with ERA5 reanalysis data. This way, we quantify the close links between heatwave intensity and AT in the Northern Hemisphere. Approximately half of the interannual variability of heatwaves is explained and nearly 80% of the zonally asymmetric trend signs are estimated correctly by the AT changes in the mid-latitudes. We also uncover that the likelihood of extremely hot summers has increased sharply by a factor of 4.5 after 2000 over areas with enhanced AT, but remained almost unchanged over the areas with attenuated AT. Furthermore, reproducing Eastern European heatwave trends among various models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 largely depends on the simulated Eurasian AT changes, highlighting the potentially significant impact of AT shifts on the simulation and projection of heatwaves.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52254-0

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