Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of dengue fever in China

Haobo Ni, Xiaoyan Cai, Jiarong Ren, Tingting Dai, Jiayi Zhou, Jiumin Lin, Li Wang, Lingxi Wang, Sen Pei, Yunchong Yao, Ting Xu, Lina Xiao, Qiyong Liu (), Xiaobo Liu () and Pi Guo ()
Additional contact information
Haobo Ni: Shantou University Medical College
Xiaoyan Cai: Shantou University Medical College
Jiarong Ren: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Tingting Dai: Shantou University Medical College
Jiayi Zhou: Shantou University Medical College
Jiumin Lin: Second Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College
Li Wang: Sun Yat-sen University
Lingxi Wang: Shantou University Medical College
Sen Pei: Columbia University
Yunchong Yao: Shantou University Medical College
Ting Xu: Shantou University Medical College
Lina Xiao: Shantou University Medical College
Qiyong Liu: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Xiaobo Liu: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Pi Guo: Shantou University Medical College

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract China has experienced successive waves of dengue epidemics over the past decade. Nationwide data on 95,339 dengue cases, 89 surveillance sites for mosquito density and population mobility between 337 cities during 2013-20 were extracted. Weekly dengue time series including time trends and harmonic terms were fitted using seasonal regression models, and the amplitude and peak timing of the annual and semiannual cycles were estimated. A data-driven model-inference approach was used to simulate the epidemic at city-scale and estimate time-evolving epidemiological parameters. We found that the geographical distribution of dengue cases was expanding, and the main imported areas as well as external sources of imported cases changed. Dengue cases were predominantly concentrated in southern China and it exhibited an annual peak of activity, typically peaking in September. The annual amplitude of dengue epidemic varied with latitude (F = 19.62, P = 0.0001), mainly characterizing by large in southern cities and small in northern cities. The effective reproduction number Reff across cities is commonly greater than 1 in several specific months from July to November, further confirming the seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity of dengue epidemics. The results of this national study help to better informing interventions for future dengue epidemics in China.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52460-w

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