Impact of six-month COVID-19 travel moratorium on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

Dianna E. B. Hergott (), Carlos A. Guerra, Guillermo A. García, Jeremías Nzamío Mba Eyono, Olivier T. Donfack, Marcos Mbulito Iyanga, Restituto Mba Nguema Avue, Crisantos Nsue Abeso Nsegue, Teresa Ayingono Ondo Mifumu, Matilde Riloha Rivas, Wonder P. Phiri, Sean C. Murphy, Brandon L. Guthrie, David L. Smith and Jennifer E. Balkus
Additional contact information
Dianna E. B. Hergott: University of Washington
Carlos A. Guerra: Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project
Guillermo A. García: Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project
Jeremías Nzamío Mba Eyono: Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project
Olivier T. Donfack: Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project
Marcos Mbulito Iyanga: Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project
Restituto Mba Nguema Avue: Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project
Crisantos Nsue Abeso Nsegue: Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project
Teresa Ayingono Ondo Mifumu: Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project
Matilde Riloha Rivas: Ministry of Health and Social Welfare
Wonder P. Phiri: Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project
Sean C. Murphy: University of Washington
Brandon L. Guthrie: University of Washington
David L. Smith: University of Washington
Jennifer E. Balkus: University of Washington

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Importation of malaria infections is a suspected driver of sustained malaria prevalence on areas of Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. Quantifying the impact of imported infections is difficult because of the dynamic nature of the disease and complexity of designing a randomized trial. We leverage a six-month travel moratorium in and out of Bioko Island during the initial COVID-19 pandemic response to evaluate the contribution of imported infections to malaria prevalence on Bioko Island. Using a difference in differences design and data from island wide household surveys conducted before (2019) and after (2020) the travel moratorium, we compare the change in prevalence between areas of low historical travel to those with high historical travel. Here, we report that in the absence of a travel moratorium, the prevalence of infection in high travel areas was expected to be 9% higher than observed, highlighting the importance of control measures that target imported infections.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52638-2

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