A regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction

Mikkel Bennedsen (), Eric Hillebrand and Siem Jan Koopman
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Mikkel Bennedsen: Aarhus University
Eric Hillebrand: Aarhus University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The global fraction of anthropogenically emitted carbon dioxide (CO2) that stays in the atmosphere, the CO2 airborne fraction, has been fluctuating around a constant value over the period 1959 to 2022. The consensus estimate of the airborne fraction is around 44%. In this study, we show that the conventional estimator of the airborne fraction, based on a ratio of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and CO2 emissions, suffers from a number of statistical deficiencies. We propose an alternative regression-based estimator of the airborne fraction that does not suffer from these deficiencies. Our empirical analysis leads to an estimate of the airborne fraction over 1959–2022 of 47.0% (± 1.1%; 1σ), implying a higher, and better constrained, estimate than the current consensus. Using climate model output, we show that a regression-based approach provides sensible estimates of the airborne fraction, also in future scenarios where emissions are at or near zero.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52728-1

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