The potential of gene drives in malaria vector species to control malaria in African environments

Penelope A. Hancock (), Ace North, Adrian W. Leach, Peter Winskill, Azra C. Ghani, H. Charles J. Godfray, Austin Burt and John D. Mumford
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Penelope A. Hancock: Imperial College London
Ace North: University of Oxford
Adrian W. Leach: Imperial College London
Peter Winskill: Imperial College London
Azra C. Ghani: Imperial College London
H. Charles J. Godfray: University of Oxford
Austin Burt: Imperial College London
John D. Mumford: Imperial College London

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Gene drives are a promising means of malaria control with the potential to cause sustained reductions in transmission. In real environments, however, their impacts will depend on local ecological and epidemiological factors. We develop a data-driven model to investigate the impacts of gene drives that causes vector population suppression. We simulate gene drive releases in sixteen ~ 12,000 km2 areas of west Africa that span variation in vector ecology and malaria prevalence, and estimate reductions in vector abundance, malaria prevalence and clinical cases. Average reductions in vector abundance ranged from 71.6–98.4% across areas, while impacts on malaria depended strongly on which vector species were targeted. When other new interventions including RTS,S vaccination and pyrethroid-PBO bednets were in place, at least 60% more clinical cases were averted when gene drives were added, demonstrating the benefits of integrated interventions. Our results show that different strategies for gene drive implementation may be required across different African settings.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53065-z

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