Flowering in the Northern Hemisphere is delayed by frost after leaf-out

Haoyu Qiu, Qin Yan, Yuchuan Yang, Xu Huang, Jinmei Wang, Jiajie Luo, Lang Peng, Ge Bai, Liuyue Zhang, Rui Zhang, Yongshuo H. Fu, Chaoyang Wu, Josep Peñuelas and Lei Chen ()
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Haoyu Qiu: Sichuan University
Qin Yan: Sichuan University
Yuchuan Yang: Sichuan University
Xu Huang: Sichuan University
Jinmei Wang: Sichuan University
Jiajie Luo: Sichuan University
Lang Peng: Sichuan University
Ge Bai: Sichuan University
Liuyue Zhang: Sichuan University
Rui Zhang: Zhejiang A&F University
Yongshuo H. Fu: Beijing Normal University
Chaoyang Wu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Josep Peñuelas: National Research Council (CSIC)
Lei Chen: Sichuan University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Late spring frosts, occurring after spring phenological events, pose a dire threat to tree growth and forest productivity. With climate warming, earlier spring phenological events have become increasingly common and led to plants experiencing more frequent and severe frost damage. However, the effect of late spring frosts after leaf-out on subsequent flowering phenology in woody species remains unknown. Utilizing 572,734 phenological records of 640 species at 5024 sites from four long-term and large-scale in situ phenological networks across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that late spring frosts following leaf-out significantly delay the onset of the subsequent flowering by approximately 6.0 days. Late-leafing species exhibit greater sensitivity to the frosts than early-leafing species, resulting in a longer delay of 2.5 days in flowering. Trees in warm regions and periods exhibit a more pronounced frost-induced flowering delay compared to those in cold regions and periods. A significant increase in the frequency of late spring frost occurrence is observed in recent decades. Our findings elucidate the intricate relationships among leaf-out, frost, and flowering but also emphasize that the sequential progression of phenological events, rather than individual phenological stages, should be considered when assessing the phenological responses to climate change.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53382-3

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