The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe

Frauke Wiese (), Nicolas Taillard, Emile Balembois, Benjamin Best, Stephane Bourgeois, José Campos, Luisa Cordroch, Mathilde Djelali, Alexandre Gabert, Adrien Jacob, Elliott Johnson, Sébastien Meyer, Béla Munkácsy, Lorenzo Pagliano, Sylvain Quoilin, Andrea Roscetti, Johannes Thema, Paolo Thiran, Adrien Toledano, Bendix Vogel, Carina Zell-Ziegler and Yves Marignac
Additional contact information
Frauke Wiese: Europa-Universität Flensburg
Nicolas Taillard: négaWatt Association
Emile Balembois: négaWatt Association
Benjamin Best: Climate Neutral Bonn 2035 Program Office
Stephane Bourgeois: négaWatt Association
José Campos: ELTE University
Luisa Cordroch: Europa-Universität Flensburg
Mathilde Djelali: négaWatt Association
Alexandre Gabert: négaWatt Association
Adrien Jacob: négaWatt Association
Elliott Johnson: University of Leeds
Sébastien Meyer: negaWatt Belgium
Béla Munkácsy: ELTE University
Lorenzo Pagliano: Architecture and Urban Studies Department
Sylvain Quoilin: University of Liege
Andrea Roscetti: Architecture and Urban Studies Department
Johannes Thema: Europa-Universität Flensburg
Paolo Thiran: Université Catholique de Louvain
Adrien Toledano: négaWatt Association
Bendix Vogel: Europa-Universität Flensburg
Carina Zell-Ziegler: Technische Universität Berlin
Yves Marignac: négaWatt Association

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract A detailed assessment of a low energy demand, 1.5 ∘C compatible pathway is provided for Europe from a bottom-up, country scale modelling perspective. The level of detail enables a clear representation of the potential of sufficiency measures. Results show that by 2050, 50% final energy demand reduction compared to 2019 is possible in Europe, with at least 40% of it attributable to various sufficiency measures across all sectors. This reduction enables a 77% renewable energy share in 2040 and 100% in 2050, with very limited need for imports from outside of Europe and no carbon sequestration technologies. Sufficiency enables increased fairness between countries through the convergence towards a more equitable share of energy service levels. Here we show, that without sufficiency measures, Europe misses the opportunity to transform energy demand leaving considerable pressure on supply side changes combined with unproven carbon removal technologies.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53393-0

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