Road fragment edges enhance wildfire incidence and intensity, while suppressing global burned area

Simon P. K. Bowring (), Wei Li, Florent Mouillot, Thais M. Rosan and Philippe Ciais
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Simon P. K. Bowring: Université Paris-Saclay
Wei Li: Tsinghua University
Florent Mouillot: IRD
Thais M. Rosan: University of Exeter
Philippe Ciais: Université Paris-Saclay

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Abstract Landscape fragmentation is statistically correlated with both increases and decreases in wildfire burned area (BA). These different directions-of-impact are not mechanistically understood. Here, road density, a land fragmentation proxy, is implemented in a CMIP6 coupled land-fire model, to represent fragmentation edge effects on fire-relevant environmental variables. Fragmentation caused modelled BA changes of over ±10% in 16% of [0.5°] grid-cells. On average, more fragmentation decreased net BA globally (−1.5%), as estimated empirically. However, in recently-deforested tropical areas, fragmentation drove observationally-consistent BA increases of over 20%. Globally, fragmentation-driven fire BA decreased with increasing population density, but was a hump-shaped function of it in forests. In some areas, fragmentation-driven decreases in BA occurred alongside higher-intensity fires, suggesting the decoupling of fire severity traits. This mechanistic model provides a starting point for quantifying policy-relevant fragmentation-fire impacts, whose results suggest future forest degradation may shift fragmentation from net global fire inhibitor to net fire driver.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53460-6

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