Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening

Mingna Wu (), Chao Li, Matthew Collins, Hongmei Li, Xiaolong Chen, Tianjun Zhou and Zhongshi Zhang ()
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Mingna Wu: China University of Geosciences
Chao Li: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Matthew Collins: University of Exeter
Hongmei Li: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Xiaolong Chen: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Tianjun Zhou: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zhongshi Zhang: China University of Geosciences

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract The Walker circulation is projected to slow down in response to greenhouse gas warming. However, detecting the impact of human activities on changes in the Walker circulation is challenging due to the significant influence of internal variability. Here, based on ensembles of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we show evidence that the emergence of the human-induced weakening of Walker circulation tends to occur earlier in the middle-upper troposphere than at the surface. This earlier emergence is attributed to a more pronounced initial weakening response of the middle-upper tropospheric Walker circulation to atmospheric CO2 radiative forcing. We further reveal that the emergence time of a weaker Walker circulation varies across models. This intermodel spread is governed by an ocean thermostat that operates by modulating the zonal sea surface temperature gradient over the tropical Indo-Pacific region. Our findings address the key question of whether and how to detect human-induced large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and provide valuable insights for assessing the associated risks.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53509-6

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