Non-linear elasticity, earthquake triggering and seasonal hydrological forcing along the Irpinia fault, Southern Italy

Stefania Tarantino (), Piero Poli, Nicola D’Agostino, Maurizio Vassallo, Gaetano Festa, Gerardo Ventafridda and Aldo Zollo
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Stefania Tarantino: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Piero Poli: University of Padova
Nicola D’Agostino: Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Maurizio Vassallo: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Gaetano Festa: University of Napoli
Gerardo Ventafridda: Acquedotto Pugliese S.p.A
Aldo Zollo: University of Napoli

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Pump-probe experiments investigate the strain sensitivity of crustal elastic properties, showing nonlinear variations during the strain cycle. In the laboratory, pre-seismic reductions in seismic velocity indicate that asperity contacts within the fault zone begin to fail before the macroscopic frictional sliding. The recognition of such effects in natural seismic-cycles has been challenging. Here we exploit seasonal hydrological strains, performing a natural analogue to a quasi-static laboratory pump-probe experiment to investigate the nonlinear strain sensitivity of crustal rocks and its role in seismic failure along the tectonically-active Irpinia Fault System (Southern Italy). By comparing 14-years-long series of spring discharge, strain, seismic velocity variations and earthquakes rate, we find that seismicity peaks during maximum hydrological forcing and minimum seismic velocity. Seasonal strains of ~10−6 are required for both earthquake triggering and significant nonlinearity effects arising from modulus reduction. We suggest that, for faults in a critical state, cyclical softening may lead to failure and seasonal seismicity.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54094-4

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