Contributions of ecological restoration policies to China’s land carbon balance

Chao Yue (), Mengyang Xu, Philippe Ciais, Shu Tao, Huizhong Shen, Jinfeng Chang, Wei Li, Lei Deng, Junhao He, Yi Leng, Yu Li, Jiaming Wang, Can Xu, Han Zhang, Pengyi Zhang, Liankai Zhang, Jie Zhao, Lei Zhu and Shilong Piao ()
Additional contact information
Chao Yue: Northwest A&F University
Mengyang Xu: Northwest A&F University
Philippe Ciais: Université Paris-Saclay
Shu Tao: Southern University of Science and Technology
Huizhong Shen: Southern University of Science and Technology
Jinfeng Chang: Zhejiang University
Wei Li: Tsinghua University
Lei Deng: Northwest A&F University
Junhao He: Northwest A&F University
Yi Leng: Tsinghua University
Yu Li: Northwest A&F University
Jiaming Wang: Northwest A&F University
Can Xu: China Geological Survey
Han Zhang: Northwest A&F University
Pengyi Zhang: Northwest A&F University
Liankai Zhang: China Geological Survey
Jie Zhao: Linyi University
Lei Zhu: Tsinghua University
Shilong Piao: Peking University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Unleashing the land sector’s potential for climate mitigation requires purpose-driven changes in land management. However, contributions of past management changes to the current global and regional carbon cycles remain unclear. Here, we use vegetation modelling to reveal how a portfolio of ecological restoration policies has impacted China’s terrestrial carbon balance through developing counterfactual ‘no-policy’ scenarios. Pursuing conventional policies and assuming no changes in climate or atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) since 1980 would have led China’s land sector to be a carbon source of 0.11 Pg C yr−1 for 2001–2020, in stark contrast to a sink of 175.9 Tg C yr−1 in reality. About 72.7% of this difference can be attributed to land management changes, including afforestation and reforestation (49.0%), reduced wood extraction (21.8%), fire prevention and suppression (1.6%) and grassland grazing exclusion (0.3%). The remaining 27.3% come from changes in atmospheric CO2 (42.2%) and climate (−14.9%). Our results underscore the potential of active land management in achieving ‘carbon-neutrality’ in China.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54100-9

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