Bayesian modeling of HFC production pipeline suggests growth in unreported CFC by-product and feedstock production

Stephen Bourguet () and Megan Lickley
Additional contact information
Stephen Bourguet: Georgetown University
Megan Lickley: Georgetown University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Observationally-derived emissions of ozone depleting substances must be scrutinized to maintain the progress made by the Montreal Protocol in protecting the stratospheric ozone layer. Recent observations of three chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), CFC-113, CFC-114, and CFC-115, suggest that emissions of these compounds have not decreased as expected given global reporting of their production. These emissions have been associated with hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production, which can require CFCs as feedstocks or generate CFCs as by-products, yet emissions from these pathways have not been rigorously quantified. Here, we develop a Bayesian framework to jointly infer emissions of CFC-113, CFC-114, and CFC-115 during HFC-134a and HFC-125 production. We estimate that feedstock emissions from HFC-134a production accounted for 90% (82–94%) and 65% (47–77%) of CFC-113 and CFC-114 emissions, respectively, from 2015–2019, while by-product emissions during HFC-125 production accounted for 81% (68–92%) of CFC-115 emissions. Our results suggest that unreported feedstock production in low- to middle-income countries may explain the unexpected emissions of CFC-113 and CFC-114, although uncertainties within chemical manufacturing processes call for further investigation and industry transparency. This work motivates tightened feedstock regulations and adds a reduction in CFC emissions to the benefits of the HFC phasedowns scheduled by the Kigali Amendment.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-55250-6 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-55250-6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-55250-6

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().