Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plants

Rui Wang, Wenjia Cai (), Ryna Yiyun Cui, Lin Huang, Weidong Ma, Binbin Qi, Jia Zhang, Jiang Bian, Haoran Li, Shihui Zhang, Jianxiang Shen, Xian Zhang, Jiutian Zhang, Wei Li, Le Yu, Ning Zhang and Can Wang
Additional contact information
Rui Wang: Tsinghua University
Wenjia Cai: Tsinghua University
Ryna Yiyun Cui: University of Maryland
Lin Huang: Microsoft Research AI4Science
Weidong Ma: Microsoft Research Asia
Binbin Qi: China University of Petroleum (Beijing)
Jia Zhang: Microsoft Research AI4Science
Jiang Bian: Microsoft Research Asia
Haoran Li: China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute
Shihui Zhang: Tsinghua University
Jianxiang Shen: Tsinghua University
Xian Zhang: Ministry of Science and Technology
Jiutian Zhang: Beijing Normal University
Wei Li: Tsinghua University
Le Yu: Tsinghua University
Ning Zhang: Tsinghua University
Can Wang: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract The same cumulative carbon emission reduction target can correspond to multiple emission reduction pathways. This study explores how different coal power transition pathways with the same cumulative emissions reductions impact the transition costs, by assessing the dynamic transition processes for coal plants adopting multiple mitigation technologies concurrently or sequentially, such as flexibility operation, biomass and coal co-firing, carbon capture and storage, and compulsory retirement. We develop a plant-level dynamic optimization model and apply it to China’s 4200+ coal plants. We find that under deep decarbonization, the majority of Chinese coal plants retrofit with multiple technologies to reduce emissions and retire naturally at lower costs while contributing to grid stability. Optimizing the pathway can potentially save over 700 billion U.S. Dollars for achieving the same target or increase cumulative emissions reduction from 30% to 50% at no additional cost. This analysis can help inform a cost-effective coal phase-out under China’s carbon neutrality.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-55332-5

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