The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia

Steve Pye (), Michael Bradshaw, James Price, Dan Zhang, Caroline Kuzemko, Jack Sharples, Dan Welsby and Paul E. Dodds
Additional contact information
Steve Pye: University College London
Michael Bradshaw: University of Warwick
James Price: University College London
Dan Zhang: University College London
Caroline Kuzemko: University of Warwick
Jack Sharples: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Dan Welsby: University College London
Paul E. Dodds: University College London

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Recent years have seen unprecedented shifts in global natural gas trade, precipitated in large part by Russia’s war on Ukraine. How this regional conflict impacts the future of natural gas markets is subject to three interconnected factors: (i) Russia’s strategy to regain markets for its gas exports; (ii) Europe’s push towards increased liquified natural gas (LNG) and the pace of its low carbon transition; and (iii) China’s gas demand and how it balances its climate and energy security objectives. A scenario modelling approach is applied to explore the potential implications of this geopolitical crisis. We find that Russia struggles to regain pre-crisis gas export levels, with the degrees of its success contingent on China’s strategy. Compared to 2020, Russia’s gas exports are down by 31–47% in 2040 where new markets are limited and by 13–38% under a pivot to Asia strategy. We demonstrate how integrating energy geopolitics and modelling enhances our understanding of energy futures.

Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-55697-7 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-55697-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-55697-7

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().