Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation

Xinyi Zhang, Xiaoyue Wang (), Constantin M. Zohner, Josep Peñuelas, Yang Li, Xiuchen Wu, Yao Zhang, Huiying Liu, Pengju Shen, Xiaoxu Jia, Wenbin Liu, Dashuan Tian, Prajal Pradhan, Adandé Belarmain Fandohan, Dailiang Peng () and Chaoyang Wu ()
Additional contact information
Xinyi Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiaoyue Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Constantin M. Zohner: ETH Zurich
Josep Peñuelas: Bellaterra
Yang Li: University of Arizona
Xiuchen Wu: Beijing Normal University
Yao Zhang: Peking University
Huiying Liu: East China Normal University
Pengju Shen: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiaoxu Jia: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wenbin Liu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Dashuan Tian: University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
Prajal Pradhan: University of Groningen
Adandé Belarmain Fandohan: Université Nationale d’Agriculture
Dailiang Peng: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Chaoyang Wu: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Precipitation is an important factor influencing the date of foliar senescence, which in turn affects carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the temporal patterns of precipitation frequency and its impact on foliar senescence date remain largely unknown. Using both long-term carbon flux data and satellite observations across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that, after excluding impacts from of temperature, radiation and total precipitation by partial correlation analysis, declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier foliar senescence date from 1982 to 2022. A decrease in precipitation frequency intensifies drought stress by reducing root-zone soil moisture and increasing atmospheric dryness, and limit the photosynthesis necessary for sustained growth. The enhanced drought acclimation, showing a more rapid response to drought, also explains the positive relationship between precipitation frequency and foliar senescence date. Finally, we find 30 current state-of-art Earth system models largely fail to capture the sensitivity of DFS to changes in precipitation frequency and incorrectly predict the direction of correlations for approximately half of the northern global lands, in both historical simulations and future predictions. Our results therefore highlight the critical need to include precipitation frequency, rather than just total precipitation, into models to accurately forecast plant phenology under future climate change.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56159-4

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