Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results

Yi Yao (), Agnès Ducharne, Benjamin I. Cook, Steven J. Hertog, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Pedro F. Arboleda-Obando, Jonathan Buzan, Jeanne Colin, Maya Costantini, Bertrand Decharme, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, L. Ruby Leung, Min-Hui Lo, Narayanappa Devaraju, William R. Wieder, Ren-Jie Wu, Tian Zhou, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sonali McDermid, Yadu Pokhrel, Maxwell Elling, Naota Hanasaki, Paul Muñoz, Larissa S. Nazarenko, Kedar Otta, Yusuke Satoh, Tokuta Yokohata, Lei Jin, Xuhui Wang, Vimal Mishra, Subimal Ghosh and Wim Thiery
Additional contact information
Yi Yao: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Agnès Ducharne: Sorbonne Université
Benjamin I. Cook: New York University
Steven J. Hertog: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Kjetil Schanke Aas: CICERO - Center for International Climate Research
Pedro F. Arboleda-Obando: Sorbonne Université
Jonathan Buzan: Physics Institute, University of Bern
Jeanne Colin: Université de Toulouse, Météo-France
Maya Costantini: Université de Toulouse, Météo-France
Bertrand Decharme: Université de Toulouse, Météo-France
David M. Lawrence: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Peter Lawrence: National Center for Atmospheric Research
L. Ruby Leung: Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Min-Hui Lo: National Taiwan University
Narayanappa Devaraju: CSC- IT Center for Science
William R. Wieder: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Ren-Jie Wu: National Taiwan University
Tian Zhou: Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Jonas Jägermeyr: Climate School
Sonali McDermid: New York University
Yadu Pokhrel: Michigan State University
Maxwell Elling: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Naota Hanasaki: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Paul Muñoz: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Larissa S. Nazarenko: New York University
Kedar Otta: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Yusuke Satoh: Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology
Tokuta Yokohata: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Lei Jin: College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
Xuhui Wang: College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
Vimal Mishra: Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)
Subimal Ghosh: Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
Wim Thiery: Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that irrigation expansion causes a rapid increase in irrigation water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times less likely). However, due to the irrigation-induced increase in air humidity, the cooling effect of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress is less pronounced or even reversed, depending on the heat stress metric. In summary, this study indicates that irrigation deployment is not an efficient adaptation measure to escalating human heat stress under climate change, calling for carefully dealing with the increased exposure of local people to moist-heat stress.

Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56356-1 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-56356-1

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56356-1

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().