Electricity- and hydrogen-driven energy system sector-coupling in net-zero CO2 emission pathways

Bob van der Zwaan (), Amir Fattahi, Francesco Dalla Longa, Mark Dekker, Detlef van Vuuren, Robert Pietzcker, Renato Rodrigues, Felix Schreyer, Daniel Huppmann, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Pfenninger, Francesco Lombardi, Panagiotis Fragkos, Maria Kannavou, Theofano Fotiou, Giannis Tolios and Will Usher
Additional contact information
Bob van der Zwaan: TNO, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research
Amir Fattahi: TNO, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research
Francesco Dalla Longa: TNO, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research
Mark Dekker: PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Detlef van Vuuren: PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Robert Pietzcker: PIK, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Renato Rodrigues: PIK, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Felix Schreyer: PIK, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Daniel Huppmann: IIASA, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, ECE Program
Johannes Emmerling: RFF‐CMCC, European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE)
Stefan Pfenninger: Delft University of Technology
Francesco Lombardi: Delft University of Technology
Panagiotis Fragkos: E3-Modelling
Maria Kannavou: E3-Modelling
Theofano Fotiou: E3-Modelling
Giannis Tolios: E3-Modelling
Will Usher: KTH, Royal Institute of Technology

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Electricity- and hydrogen-based sector coupling contributes to realizing the transition towards greenhouse gas neutrality in the European energy system. Energy system and integrated assessment models show that, to follow pathways compatible with the European policy target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, large amounts of renewable electricity and H2 need to be generated, mostly by scaling-up wind and solar energy production capacity. With a set of such models, under jointly adopted deep decarbonisation scenario assumptions, we here show that the ensuing direct penetration of electricity and H2 in final energy consumption may rise to average shares of around 60% and 6%, respectively, by 2050. We demonstrate that electrification proves the most cost-efficient decarbonisation route in all economic sectors, while the direct use of H2 in final energy consumption provides a relatively small, though essential, contribution to deep decarbonisation. We conclude that the variance observed across results from different models reflects the uncertainties that abound in the shape of deep decarbonisation pathways, in particular with regard to the role of H2.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56365-0

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