A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement

Mingyu Li, Setu Pelz, Robin Lamboll, Can Wang and Joeri Rogelj ()
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Mingyu Li: Tsinghua University
Setu Pelz: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Robin Lamboll: Imperial College London
Can Wang: Tsinghua University
Joeri Rogelj: Imperial College London

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Equity is a cornerstone of global climate policy, yet differing perspectives mean that international agreement on how to allocate mitigation efforts remains elusive. A rich literature informs this question, but a gap remains in approaches that appropriately consider non-CO2 emissions and their warming contributions. In this study, we address this gap and define a global warming budget applicable to all anthropogenic greenhouse gases that is allocated to countries based on principles drawn from international treaties and environmental law. We find that by 2021 a range of 84 to 90 countries, including but not limited to all major developed countries, exhausted their budget share compatible with keeping warming to 1.5 °C (with 50% likelihood) under all allocation approaches considered in this study. A similar picture emerges for limiting warming to 2 °C (with 67% likelihood). A large group of countries will hence exceed their fair shares even if their pledges under the Paris Agreement represent their deepest possible emission reductions. Considerations of fairness should therefore start exploring aspects beyond domestic emissions reductions.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56397-6

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