Precession modulates the poleward expansion of atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Ocean

Yi Zhong (), Zhengyao Lu (), Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr, Jimin Yu, Keiji Horikawa, Mark J. Dekkers, Juan C. Larrasoaña, Peter D. Clift, Michael E. Weber, Flor Vermassen, Sev Kender, Chijun Sun, Hu Yang, Xianfeng Wang, Camilla S. Andresen, Yanguang Liu, Haiwei Zhang, Zhengyang Dai, Lu Niu, Jingyu Zhang, Xuguang Feng, Debo Zhao, Wenyue Xia, Sheng Yang, Hai Li and Qingsong Liu ()
Additional contact information
Yi Zhong: Southern University of Science and Technology
Zhengyao Lu: Lund University
Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr: Frei Universität Berlin
Jimin Yu: Laoshan Laboratory
Keiji Horikawa: University of Toyama
Mark J. Dekkers: Utrecht University
Juan C. Larrasoaña: Campus de Arrosadia
Peter D. Clift: University College London
Michael E. Weber: University of Bonn
Flor Vermassen: Stockholm University
Sev Kender: University of Exeter
Chijun Sun: University of California Davis
Hu Yang: Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Xianfeng Wang: Nanyang Technological University
Camilla S. Andresen: 1350
Yanguang Liu: Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR)
Haiwei Zhang: Xi’an Jiaotong University
Zhengyang Dai: Southern University of Science and Technology
Lu Niu: Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Jingyu Zhang: Southern University of Science and Technology
Xuguang Feng: Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR)
Debo Zhao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wenyue Xia: Southern University of Science and Technology
Sheng Yang: Southern University of Science and Technology
Hai Li: Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)
Qingsong Liu: Southern University of Science and Technology

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Under sustained global warming, Arctic climate is projected to become more responsive to changes in North Pacific meridional heat transport as a result of teleconnections between low and high latitudes, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct subarctic humidity changes over the past 400 kyr to investigate the role of low-to-high latitude interactions in regulating Arctic hydroclimate. Our reconstruction is based on precipitation-driven sediment input variations in the Subarctic North Pacific (SANP), which reveal a strong precessional cycle in subarctic humidity under the relatively low eccentricity variations that dominated the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. Combined with climate model simulations, we highlight that precession drives meridional shifts in the northern rim of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) and modulates the efficiency of heat and water vapor transfer to the SANP and Arctic regions. Our findings suggest that projections of a northward shift of the NPSG in response to future global warming will lead to wetter conditions in the Arctic Ocean and enhanced sea-ice loss.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1

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