Getting the best of carbon bang for mangrove restoration buck

Jingfan Zhang, Zhe Lu, Jinge Zhou, Guoming Qin, Yicheng Bai, Christian J. Sanders, Peter I. Macreadie, Jiacan Yuan, Xingyun Huang and Faming Wang ()
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Jingfan Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zhe Lu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jinge Zhou: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Guoming Qin: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yicheng Bai: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Christian J. Sanders: Southern Cross University
Peter I. Macreadie: RMIT University
Jiacan Yuan: Fudan University
Xingyun Huang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Faming Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Mangrove loss has reduced its carbon (C) sink function and ecosystem services. To effectively allocate climate finance for mangrove restoration, a thorough assessment of restoration potential is necessary. Here we show a net loss of ecosystem service value (ESV) of 29.2 billion USD ($) due to land changes in mangroves from 1996 to 2019. The estimated mangrove ESV in 2019 amounts to $894 billion yr−1, mainly provided by regulating and provisioning services (57.4% and 19.7%). Over the next two decades, we project that the restoration of mangroves would necessitate an investment of $40.0–52.1 billion, yielding net gains in ESV of $231–725 billion. The global benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of mangrove restoration ranges from 6.35 to 15.0, demonstrating that such projects are highly cost-effective. Furthermore, an estimated of 19.4 Tg C can be sequestrated in mangrove soils based on a 20-year mangrove restoration program, which can generate $68.6–$236 million via blue C trading. Our findings highlight the significant opportunities for blue C restoration projects to mitigate climate change and support livelihoods.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56587-2

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