Ergodic seismic precursors and transfer learning for short term eruption forecasting at data scarce volcanoes

Alberto Ardid (), David Dempsey, Corentin Caudron, Shane Cronin, Ben Kennedy, Társilo Girona, Diana Roman, Craig Miller, Sally Potter, Oliver D. Lamb, Anto Martanto, Yesim Cubuk-Sabuncu, Leoncio Cabrera, Sergio Ruiz, Rodrigo Contreras, Javier Pacheco, Mauricio M. Mora and Silvio Angelis
Additional contact information
Alberto Ardid: University of Canterbury
David Dempsey: University of Canterbury
Corentin Caudron: Université libre de Bruxelles
Shane Cronin: University of Auckland
Ben Kennedy: University of Canterbury
Társilo Girona: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Diana Roman: Carnegie Institution
Craig Miller: Te Pū Ao | GNS Science
Sally Potter: Te Pū Ao | GNS Science
Oliver D. Lamb: Te Pū Ao | GNS Science
Anto Martanto: Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation
Yesim Cubuk-Sabuncu: Icelandic Met Office
Leoncio Cabrera: Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Sergio Ruiz: Universidad de Chile
Rodrigo Contreras: Universidad Católica de Temuco
Javier Pacheco: National University of Costa Rica
Mauricio M. Mora: University of Costa Rica
Silvio Angelis: University of Liverpool

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Seismic data recorded before volcanic eruptions provides important clues for forecasting. However, limited monitoring histories and infrequent eruptions restrict the data available for training forecasting models. We propose a transfer machine learning approach that identifies eruption precursors—signals that consistently change before eruptions—across multiple volcanoes. Using seismic data from 41 eruptions at 24 volcanoes over 73 years, our approach forecasts eruptions at unobserved (out-of-sample) volcanoes. Tested without data from the target volcano, the model demonstrated accuracy comparable to direct training on the target and exceeded benchmarks based on seismic amplitude. These results indicate that eruption precursors exhibit ergodicity, sharing common patterns that allow observations from one group of volcanoes to approximate the behavior of others. This approach addresses data limitations at individual sites and provides a useful tool to support monitoring efforts at volcano observatories, improving the ability to forecast eruptions and mitigate volcanic risks.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56689-x

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