Assessing the climate benefits of afforestation in the Canadian Northern Boreal and Southern Arctic

Kevin Bradley Dsouza (), Enoch Ofosu, Jack Salkeld, Richard Boudreault, Juan Moreno-Cruz and Yuri Leonenko
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Kevin Bradley Dsouza: University of Waterloo
Enoch Ofosu: University of Waterloo
Jack Salkeld: University of Waterloo
Richard Boudreault: University of Waterloo
Yuri Leonenko: University of Waterloo

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-19

Abstract: Abstract Afforestation greatly influences several earth system processes, making it essential to understand these effects to accurately assess its potential for climate change mitigation. Although our understanding of forest-climate system interactions has improved, significant knowledge gaps remain, preventing definitive assessments of afforestation's net climate benefits. In this review, focusing on the Canadian northern boreal and southern arctic, we identify these gaps and synthesize existing knowledge. The review highlights regional realities, Earth's climatic history, uncertainties in biogeochemical (BGC) and biogeophysical (BGP) changes following afforestation, and limitations in current assessment methodologies, emphasizing the need to reconcile these uncertainties before drawing firm conclusions about the climate benefits of afforestation. Finally, we propose an assessment framework which considers multiple forcing components, temporal analysis, future climatic contexts, and implementation details. We hope that the research gaps and assessment framework discussed in this review inform afforestation policy in Canada and other circumpolar nations.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56699-9

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