Agricultural fertilization significantly enhances amplitude of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange

Danica L. Lombardozzi (danica.lombardozzi@colostate.edu), William R. Wieder, Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, Jiameng Lai, Zhenqi Luo, Ying Sun, Isla R. Simpson, David M. Lawrence, Gordon B. Bonan, Xin Lin, Charles D. Koven, Pierre Friedlingstein and Keith Lindsay
Additional contact information
Danica L. Lombardozzi: Colorado State University
William R. Wieder: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
Gretchen Keppel-Aleks: University of Michigan
Jiameng Lai: Cornell University
Zhenqi Luo: Cornell University
Ying Sun: Cornell University
Isla R. Simpson: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
David M. Lawrence: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
Gordon B. Bonan: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
Xin Lin: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment
Charles D. Koven: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Pierre Friedlingstein: University of Exeter
Keith Lindsay: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Observations show an increase in the seasonal cycle amplitude of CO2 in northern latitudes over the past half century. Although multiple drivers contribute, observations and inversion models cannot quantitatively account for the factors contributing to the increased CO2 amplitude and older versions of Earth System Models (ESMs) do not simulate it. Here we show that several current generation ESMs are closer to the observed CO2 amplitude and highlight that in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) agricultural nitrogen (N) fertilization increases CO2 amplitude by 1-3 ppm throughout the Northern Hemisphere and up to 9 ppm in agricultural hotspots. While agricultural N fertilization is the largest contributor to the enhanced amplitude (45%) in Northern Hemisphere land-atmosphere carbon fluxes in CESM, higher CO2 concentrations and warmer temperatures also contribute, though to a lesser extent (40% and 18% respectively). Our results emphasize the fundamental role of agricultural management in Northern Hemisphere carbon cycle feedbacks and illustrate that agricultural N fertilization should be considered in future carbon cycle simulations.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56730-z

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