The future of antibiotic use in livestock

Alejandro Acosta (), Wondmagegn Tirkaso, Francesco Nicolli, Thomas P. Van Boeckel, Giuseppina Cinardi and Junxia Song
Additional contact information
Alejandro Acosta: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Francesco Nicolli: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Thomas P. Van Boeckel: University of Zürich
Giuseppina Cinardi: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Junxia Song: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Governments worldwide have pledged to reduce antimicrobial use in the agri-food system. This study projects global livestock antibiotic use quantities through 2040 under various scenarios. This work indicates that under a business-as-usual scenario, global antibiotic use could reach ~143,481 tons by 2040, representing a 29.5% increase from the 2019 baseline of ~110,777 tons. However, alternative scenarios suggest that these projections could vary by +14.2% to -56.8%, depending on changes in livestock biomass and antibiotic use intensity. A key contribution of this research is the development of the Livestock Biomass Conversion method, a novel indicator offering improved accuracy in estimating livestock biomass. The findings have important policy implications, highlighting that meaningful reductions in antibiotic use quantity can only be achieved through coordinated efforts targeting both antibiotic use intensity and livestock biomass.

Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56825-7 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-56825-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56825-7

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().