Interdecadal modulation of Ningaloo Niño/Niña strength in the Southeast Indian Ocean by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Jiaqing Xue (), Wenjun Zhang (), Yutong Zhang, Jing-Jia Luo, Hualong Zhu, Cheng Sun and Toshio Yamagata
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Jiaqing Xue: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Wenjun Zhang: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Yutong Zhang: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Jing-Jia Luo: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Hualong Zhu: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Cheng Sun: Beijing Normal University
Toshio Yamagata: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract The Southeast Indian Ocean is a global hotspot for marine heatwaves. In that region, marine heatwaves/cold-spells are known as Ningaloo Niño/Niña events, and have substantial impacts on regional climate anomalies and unique marine ecosystems. However, the strength of Ningaloo Niño/Niña events is nonstationary and varies considerably at multidecadal timescales. Here we find that the interdecadal fluctuations in Ningaloo Niño/Niña strength are modulated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with strengthened (weakened) Ningaloo Niño/Niña corresponding to a positive (negative) AMO phase. During the positive AMO phase, the Atlantic warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies drive a series of climate mean-state changes in the Indo-Pacific region through tropics-wide teleconnections, including SST cooling over the central Pacific and SST warming in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Those mean-state changes tend to enhance El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections to the Southeast Indian Ocean, and increase local Indian Ocean ocean–atmosphere coupling, promoting the Ningaloo Niño/Niña growth. Our findings highlight the critical role of the remote influence of AMO in understanding the Southeast Indian Ocean marine heatwaves/cold-spells and associated climatic and socioeconomic impacts.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57160-7

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