Global spatiotemporal optimization of photovoltaic and wind power to achieve the Paris Agreement targets

Yijing Wang, Rong Wang (), Katsumasa Tanaka, Philippe Ciais, Josep Penuelas, Yves Balkanski, Jordi Sardans, Didier Hauglustaine, Junji Cao, Jianmin Chen, Lin Wang, Xu Tang and Renhe Zhang
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Yijing Wang: Fudan University
Rong Wang: Fudan University
Katsumasa Tanaka: Université Paris-Saclay
Philippe Ciais: Université Paris-Saclay
Josep Penuelas: Bellaterra
Yves Balkanski: Université Paris-Saclay
Jordi Sardans: Bellaterra
Didier Hauglustaine: Université Paris-Saclay
Junji Cao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jianmin Chen: Fudan University
Lin Wang: Fudan University
Xu Tang: Fudan University
Renhe Zhang: Fudan University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-19

Abstract: Abstract Limiting global warming below 1.5 or 2 °C calls for achieving energy systems with net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions likely by 2040 or 2070, but the pledged actions under current policies cannot meet these targets. Few studies have optimized global deployment of photovoltaic and wind power. Here we present a strategy involving construction of 22,821 photovoltaic, onshore-wind, and offshore-wind plants in 192 countries worldwide to minimize the levelized cost of electricity. We identify a large potential of cost reduction by combining coordination of energy storage and power transmission, dynamics of learning, trade of minerals, and development of supply chains. Our optimization increases the capacity of photovoltaic and wind power, accompanied by a reduction in the average cost of abatement from US Dollars ($) 140 (baseline) to $33 per tonne CO2. Our study provides a global roadmap for achieving energy systems with net-zero CO2 emissions, emphasizing the physical, financial, and socioeconomic challenges forward.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57292-w

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