How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Timo Kelder (), Dorothy Heinrich, Lisette Klok, Vikki Thompson, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Ed Hawkins, Louise J. Slater, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Robert L. Wilby, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Stephen Burt, Bart Hurk, Hylke Vries, Karin Wiel, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Antonio Carmona Baéz, Ellen Bueren and Erich M. Fischer
Additional contact information
Timo Kelder: Climate Adaptation Services Foundation (CAS)
Dorothy Heinrich: Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
Lisette Klok: Climate Adaptation Services Foundation (CAS)
Vikki Thompson: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Henrique M. D. Goulart: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Ed Hawkins: University of Reading
Louise J. Slater: University of Oxford
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez: ETH Zurich
Robert L. Wilby: Loughborough University
Erin Coughlan de Perez: Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
Elisabeth M. Stephens: Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
Stephen Burt: University of Reading
Bart Hurk: Deltares
Hylke Vries: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Karin Wiel: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
E. Lisa F. Schipper: University of Bonn
Antonio Carmona Baéz: University of St. Martin (USM)
Ellen Bueren: Delft University of Technology
Erich M. Fischer: ETH Zurich

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

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