Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate

Fengfei Song (), Hongqiang Dong, Lixin Wu, L. Ruby Leung, Jian Lu, Lu Dong, Peili Wu and Tianjun Zhou
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Fengfei Song: Ocean University of China
Hongqiang Dong: Ocean University of China
Lixin Wu: Ocean University of China
L. Ruby Leung: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Jian Lu: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Lu Dong: Ocean University of China
Peili Wu: Met Office Hadley Centre
Tianjun Zhou: Chinese Academy of Science

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warming of hot season would be amplified under global warming, and refer to it as “hot-season-gets-hotter” phenomenon. The amplified hot season warming is closely tied to the amplified warming of hot temperature percentiles. The hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon is mainly due to the rainfall delay and most evident in the Amazon, where spring is warming by almost 1 K more than the annual mean and the 99th percentile temperatures are warming ~30% more than the mean by the end of 21st century in a high emission scenario. Comparing experiments with and without land-atmosphere coupling, it is further found that the rainfall delay is initially driven by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and then substantially amplified by positive soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. In the satellite period, observations consistently show that the hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon has already emerged along with the rainfall delay in the Amazon. Intensified hot and dry spring climate can enhance risks of drought, heatwaves and wildfires, threatening the Amazon forest and habitats in the tropics.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57501-6

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