Quantifying cascading power outages during climate extremes considering renewable energy integration

Luo Xu (), Ning Lin, H. Vincent Poor, Dazhi Xi and A. T. D. Perera
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Luo Xu: Princeton University
Ning Lin: Princeton University
H. Vincent Poor: Princeton University
Dazhi Xi: Princeton University
A. T. D. Perera: Princeton University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Climate extremes, such as hurricanes, combined with large-scale integration of environment-sensitive renewables, could exacerbate the risk of widespread power outages. We introduce a coupled climate-energy model for cascading power outages, which comprehensively captures the impacts of climate extremes on renewable generation, and transmission and distribution networks. The model is validated with the 2022 Puerto Rico catastrophic blackout during Hurricane Fiona – a unique system-wide blackout event with complete records of weather-induced outages. The model reveals a resilience pattern that was not captured by the previous models: early failure of certain critical components enhances overall system resilience. Sensitivity analysis on various scenarios of behind-the-meter solar integration demonstrates that lower integration levels (below 45%, including the current level) exhibit minimal impact on system resilience in this event. However, surpassing this critical level without pairing it with energy storage can exacerbate the probability of catastrophic blackouts.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57565-4

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