Methane emissions from thermokarst lakes must emphasize the ice-melting impact on the Tibetan Plateau

Cuicui Mu (), Pengsi Lei, Mei Mu, Chunling Zhang, Zhensong Zhou, Jinyue Song, Yunjie Jia, Chenyan Fan, Xiaoqing Peng, Guofei Zhang, Yuanhe Yang, Lei Wang, Dongfeng Li, Chunlin Song, Genxu Wang and Zhen Zhang
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Cuicui Mu: Lanzhou University
Pengsi Lei: Lanzhou University
Mei Mu: Lanzhou University
Chunling Zhang: Lanzhou University
Zhensong Zhou: Lanzhou University
Jinyue Song: Lanzhou University
Yunjie Jia: Lanzhou University
Chenyan Fan: Lanzhou University
Xiaoqing Peng: Lanzhou University
Guofei Zhang: Lanzhou University
Yuanhe Yang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Lei Wang: Beijing Normal University
Dongfeng Li: Peking University
Chunlin Song: Sichuan University
Genxu Wang: Sichuan University
Zhen Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Thermokarst lakes, serving as significant sources of methane (CH4), play a crucial role in affecting the feedback of permafrost carbon cycle to global warming. However, accurately assessing CH4 emissions from these lakes remains challenging due to limited observations during lake ice melting periods. In this study, by integrating field surveys with machine learning modeling, we offer a comprehensive assessment of present and future CH4 emissions from thermokarst lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. Our results reveal that the previously underestimated CH4 release from lake ice bubble and water storage during ice melting periods is 11.2 ± 1.6 Gg C of CH4, accounting for 17 ± 4% of the annual total release from lakes. Despite thermokarst lakes cover only 0.2% of the permafrost area, they annually emit 65.5 ± 10.0 Gg C of CH4, which offsets 6.4% of the net carbon sink in alpine grasslands on the plateau. Considering the loss of lake ice, the expansion of thermokarst lakes is projected to lead to 1.1–1.2 folds increase in CH4 emissions by 2100. Our study allows foreseeing future CH4 emissions from the rapid expanding thermokarst lakes and sheds new lights on processes controlling the carbon-climate feedback in alpine permafrost ecosystems.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57745-2

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