Groundwater quality evolution across China

Qing Zhou, Jiangjiang Zhang, Shuyou Zhang, Qiang Chen, Huifeng Fan, Chenglong Cao, Yanni Zhang, Yadi Yang, Jian Luo () and Yijun Yao ()
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Qing Zhou: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jiangjiang Zhang: Hohai University
Shuyou Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Qiang Chen: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Huifeng Fan: Xuchang Meteorological Service
Chenglong Cao: Hohai University
Yanni Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yadi Yang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jian Luo: Georgia Institute of Technology
Yijun Yao: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract China is facing a severe groundwater quality crisis amid economic development and climate change, yet the extent and trajectory of this crisis remain largely unknown. Here we developed a machine-learning model, incorporating natural and social-economic factors, to construct annual probabilistic maps of poor groundwater quality (PGQ, i.e., Class V based on the Chinese groundwater quality standard) across China from 1980 to 2100. Alarmingly, our findings indicate a concerning escalation in PGQ area ratio, rising from 17.3% in 1980 to 30.1% in 2000, and surging to 40.8% by 2020, adversely affecting 6.8%, 17.5%, and 36.0% of the Chinese population, respectively. The predominant drivers of this degradation were identified as agricultural discharge (contributing to 10.7% growth in PGQ area ratio), followed by groundwater exploitation (5.6%), industrial discharge (5.3%), domestic discharge (1.7%), climate change (0.5%), and land use change (-0.3%). By 2050, the PGQ area ratio could range from 37.9% to 48.3% under different socio-economic and climate scenarios. Our study highlights the urgent need for effective water resources management and conservation measures to mitigate the deteriorating trend of groundwater quality and address the challenges posed by socio-economic development and climate change, thereby safeguarding water security for China and the global community.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57853-z

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