Global floating kelp forests have limited protection despite intensifying marine heatwave threats

Nur Arafeh-Dalmau (), Juan Carlos Villaseñor-Derbez, David S. Schoeman, Alejandra Mora-Soto, Tom W. Bell, Claire L. Butler, Maycira Costa, Loyiso V. Dunga, Henry F. Houskeeper, Cristian Lagger, Carolina Pantano, Daniela Laínez Pozo, Kerry J. Sink, Jennifer Sletten, Timothe Vincent, Fiorenza Micheli and Kyle C. Cavanaugh
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Nur Arafeh-Dalmau: Stanford University
Juan Carlos Villaseñor-Derbez: Stanford University
David S. Schoeman: University of the Sunshine Coast
Alejandra Mora-Soto: Seaweed Specialist Group
Tom W. Bell: Woods Hole
Claire L. Butler: University of Tasmania
Maycira Costa: University of Victoria
Loyiso V. Dunga: Seaweed Specialist Group
Henry F. Houskeeper: Woods Hole
Cristian Lagger: Ecología Marina
Carolina Pantano: Fundación Por El Mar (PEM)
Daniela Laínez Pozo: Sociedad, Ecología y Cultura
Kerry J. Sink: South African National Biodiversity Institute
Jennifer Sletten: Anthropocene Institute
Timothe Vincent: Anthropocene Institute
Fiorenza Micheli: Stanford University
Kyle C. Cavanaugh: University of California Los Angeles

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Kelp forests are one of the earth’s most productive ecosystems and are at great risk from climate change, yet little is known regarding their current conservation status and global future threats. Here, by combining a global remote sensing dataset of floating kelp forests with climate data and projections, we find that exposure to projected marine heatwaves will increase ~6 to ~16 times in the long term (2081–2100) compared to contemporary (2001–2020) exposure. While exposure will intensify across all regions, some southern hemisphere areas which have lower exposure to contemporary and projected marine heatwaves may provide climate refugia for floating kelp forests. Under these escalating threats, less than 3% of global floating kelp forests are currently within highly restrictive marine protected areas (MPAs), the most effective MPAs for protecting biodiversity. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to increase the global protection of floating kelp forests and set bolder climate adaptation goals.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58054-4

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