Global data-driven prediction of fire activity

Francesca Di Giuseppe (), Joe McNorton (), Anna Lombardi and Fredrik Wetterhall
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Francesca Di Giuseppe: ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast
Joe McNorton: ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast
Anna Lombardi: ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast
Fredrik Wetterhall: ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have expanded the potential use across scientific applications, including weather and hazard forecasting. The ability of these methods to extract information from diverse and novel data types enables the transition from forecasting fire weather, to predicting actual fire activity. In this study we demonstrate that this shift is feasible also within an operational context. Traditional methods of fire forecasts tend to over predict high fire danger, particularly in fuel limited biomes, often resulting in false alarms. By using data on fuel characteristics, ignitions and observed fire activity, data-driven predictions reduce the false-alarm rate of high-danger forecasts, enhancing their accuracy. This is made possible by high quality global datasets of fuel evolution and fire detection. We find that the quality of input data is more important when improving forecasts than the complexity of the ML architecture. While the focus on ML advancements is often justified, our findings highlight the importance of investing in high-quality data and, where necessary create it through physical models. Neglecting this aspect would undermine the potential gains from ML-based approaches, emphasizing that data quality is essential to achieve meaningful progress in fire activity forecasting.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58097-7

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