Extreme compound events in the equatorial and South Atlantic

Regina R. Rodrigues (), Camila Artana, Afonso Gonçalves Neto, Thomas L. Frölicher, Noel Keenlyside, Alistair J. Hobday, Friedrich A. Burger, Piero S. Bernardo and Julia Araújo
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Regina R. Rodrigues: Federal University of Santa Catarina
Camila Artana: Sorbonne Université
Afonso Gonçalves Neto: Federal University of Santa Catarina
Thomas L. Frölicher: University of Bern
Noel Keenlyside: University of Bergen
Alistair J. Hobday: CSIRO Environment
Friedrich A. Burger: University of Bern
Piero S. Bernardo: Federal University of Santa Catarina
Julia Araújo: Federal University of Santa Catarina

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract The impacts of marine heatwaves (MHWs) on marine ecosystems can be amplified when combined with other extreme events. Here, we investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of compound events of MHW, high acidity and low chlorophyll in the equatorial and South Atlantic, using observation-based datasets and reanalysis products. We show that the frequency and intensity of these triple compound events under a fixed baseline have increased dramatically over the past two decades, peaking in the most recent years. We analyse the drivers of triple compound events for six regions and find that, for the Angola Front and Brazil-Malvinas Confluence regions, these events are associated with a poleward shift of the fronts. In the Agulhas Leakage region, an increase in warmer waters entering from the Indian Ocean leads to compound extremes. In the western equatorial and subtropical Atlantic, they are caused by changes in the air-sea heat fluxes, while in the eastern equatorial by a weakening of upwelling. In addition, triple compound events are widespread over the South Atlantic during El Niño events, which is important because MHWs can be predicted when associated with ENSO.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58238-y

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