A pronounced decline in northern vegetation resistance to flash droughts from 2001 to 2022

Miao Zhang, Xing Yuan (), Zhenzhong Zeng, Ming Pan, Peili Wu, Jingfeng Xiao and Trevor F. Keenan
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Miao Zhang: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Xing Yuan: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Zhenzhong Zeng: Southern University of Science and Technology
Ming Pan: University of California
Peili Wu: Met Office Hadley Centre
Jingfeng Xiao: University of New Hampshire
Trevor F. Keenan: University of California

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Climate change has led to the transition of droughts into rapid and intensified phenomena known as flash droughts, presenting considerable challenges for risk management, particularly concerning their impact on ecosystem productivity. Quantifying the ecosystem’s capacity to maintain productivity during flash droughts, referred to as ecosystem resistance, is crucial to assess drought impacts. However, it remains uncertain how the resistance of ecosystem productivity to flash drought changes over time. Here we show that vegetation resistance to flash droughts declines by up to 27% (±5%) over the Northern Hemisphere hotspots during 2001-2022, including eastern Asia, western North America, and northern Europe. The notable decline in vegetation resistance is mainly attributed to increased vapour pressure deficit and temperature, and enhanced vegetation structural sensitivity to water availability. Flash droughts pose higher ecological risks than slowly-developing droughts during the growing seasons, where ecosystem productivity experiences faster decline rates with a shorter response time. Our results underscore the limited ecosystem capacity to resist flash droughts under climate change.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58253-z

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