Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world

Sijia Wu, Ming Luo (), Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau, Wei Zhang, Lin Wang, Zhen Liu, Lijie Lin, Yijing Wang, Erjia Ge, Jianfeng Li, Yuanchao Fan, Yimin Chen, Weilin Liao, Xiaoyu Wang, Xiaocong Xu, Zhixin Qi, Ziwei Huang, Faith Ka Shun Chan, David Yongqin Chen, Xiaoping Liu () and Tao Pei ()
Additional contact information
Sijia Wu: Sun Yat-sen University
Ming Luo: Sun Yat-sen University
Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau: Princeton University
Wei Zhang: Utah State University
Lin Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zhen Liu: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)
Lijie Lin: Guangdong University of Technology
Yijing Wang: Fudan University
Erjia Ge: University of Toronto
Jianfeng Li: The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, N.T.
Yuanchao Fan: Tsinghua University
Yimin Chen: Sun Yat-sen University
Weilin Liao: Sun Yat-sen University
Xiaoyu Wang: Sun Yat-sen University
Xiaocong Xu: Sun Yat-sen University
Zhixin Qi: Sun Yat-sen University
Ziwei Huang: Sun Yat-sen University
Faith Ka Shun Chan: University of Nottingham Ningbo China
David Yongqin Chen: The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Xiaoping Liu: Sun Yat-sen University
Tao Pei: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071–2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73–8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961–1990), 7.16–7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47–3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08–6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58544-5

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