Frequent land-ocean transboundary migration of tropical heatwaves under climate change

Xihui Gu, Zaiming Jiang, Yansong Guan (), Ming Luo, Jianfeng Li, Lunche Wang (), Xiang Zhang, Dongdong Kong and Liangyi Wang
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Xihui Gu: China University of Geosciences
Zaiming Jiang: China University of Geosciences
Yansong Guan: China University of Geosciences
Ming Luo: Sun Yat-sen University
Jianfeng Li: Central Ave
Lunche Wang: China University of Geosciences
Xiang Zhang: China University of Geosciences
Dongdong Kong: China University of Geosciences
Liangyi Wang: Hong Kong Baptist University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Anthropogenic warming has exacerbated atmospheric heatwaves globally, yet the transboundary migration of heatwaves between land and ocean, along with the anthropogenic influence on this process, remain unclear. Here, we employ a Lagrangian tracking approach to identify and track spatiotemporally contiguous warm-season heatwaves in both reanalyses and simulations. This way, we show that land-ocean transboundary heatwaves, especially in the tropics, exhibit longer persistence, wider areal extent, and greater intensity than those confined to land or ocean. These transboundary migrations are primarily driven by the movement of high-pressure systems (such as the westward extension of subtropical highs) and the propagation of Rossby waves. Associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the frequency of tropical heatwave migrations has increased over the past four decades, and is projected to accelerate further in the twenty-first century under the high-emissions scenario. Anthropogenically-driven landward migrations are amplified by stronger landward winds that drive heat advection, while oceanward processes are likely intensified by increased land-ocean temperature gradient. These intensified transboundary heatwaves not only accentuate humid heat risks for humans but also threaten ecosystems.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58586-9

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