The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever

Ahyoung Lim, Freya M. Shearer, Kara Sewalk, David M. Pigott, Joseph Clarke, Azhar Ghouse, Ciara Judge, Hyolim Kang, Jane P. Messina, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe, William M. Souza, Elaine O. Nsoesie, Michael Celone, Nuno Faria, Sadie J. Ryan, Ingrid B. Rabe, Diana P. Rojas, Simon I. Hay, John S. Brownstein, Nick Golding and Oliver J. Brady ()
Additional contact information
Ahyoung Lim: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Freya M. Shearer: The University of Melbourne
Kara Sewalk: Boston Children’s Hospital
David M. Pigott: University of Washington
Joseph Clarke: University of Cambridge
Azhar Ghouse: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Ciara Judge: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Hyolim Kang: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Jane P. Messina: University of Oxford
Moritz U. G. Kraemer: University of Oxford
Katy A. M. Gaythorpe: Imperial College London
William M. Souza: College of Medicine
Elaine O. Nsoesie: Boston University
Michael Celone: University of Washington
Nuno Faria: Imperial College London
Sadie J. Ryan: University of Florida
Ingrid B. Rabe: World Health Organization
Diana P. Rojas: World Health Organization
Simon I. Hay: University of Washington
John S. Brownstein: Harvard Medical School
Nick Golding: The University of Melbourne
Oliver J. Brady: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58609-5

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