Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change

Joan Ferrer Obiol (), Anastasios Bounas, Mattia Brambilla, Gianluca Lombardo, Simona Secomandi, Josephine R. Paris, Alessio Iannucci, James R. Whiting, Giulio Formenti, Andrea Bonisoli-Alquati, Gentile Francesco Ficetola, Andrea Galimberti, Jennifer Balacco, Nyambayar Batbayar, Alexandr E. Bragin, Manuela Caprioli, Inês Catry, Jacopo G. Cecere, Batmunkh Davaasuren, Federico Pascalis, Ron Efrat, Kiraz Erciyas-Yavuz, João Gameiro, Gradimir Gradev, Bettina Haase, Todd E. Katzner, Jacquelyn Mountcastle, Kresimir Mikulic, Michelangelo Morganti, Liviu G. Pârâu, Airam Rodríguez, Maurizio Sarà, Elisavet-Aspasia Toli, Nikos Tsiopelas, Claudio Ciofi, Luca Gianfranceschi, Erich D. Jarvis, Anna Olivieri, Konstantinos Sotiropoulos, Michael Wink, Emiliano Trucchi, Antonio Torroni and Diego Rubolini ()
Additional contact information
Joan Ferrer Obiol: Università degli Studi di Milano
Anastasios Bounas: University of Ioannina
Mattia Brambilla: Università degli Studi di Milano
Gianluca Lombardo: Università degli Studi di Pavia
Simona Secomandi: Università degli Studi di Milano
Josephine R. Paris: Università degli Studi dell’Aquila
Alessio Iannucci: Università degli Studi di Firenze
James R. Whiting: University of Calgary
Giulio Formenti: The Rockefeller University
Andrea Bonisoli-Alquati: California State Polytechnic University - Pomona
Gentile Francesco Ficetola: Università degli Studi di Milano
Andrea Galimberti: National Biodiversity Future Centre (NBFC)
Jennifer Balacco: The Rockefeller University
Nyambayar Batbayar: Wildlife Science and Conservation Center of Mongolia
Alexandr E. Bragin: NGO Naurzum
Manuela Caprioli: Università degli Studi di Milano
Inês Catry: Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa
Jacopo G. Cecere: Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale
Batmunkh Davaasuren: Wildlife Science and Conservation Center of Mongolia
Federico Pascalis: Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale
Ron Efrat: University of Haifa
Kiraz Erciyas-Yavuz: Ondokuz Mayis University
João Gameiro: Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto
Gradimir Gradev: Green Balkans - Stara Zagora NGO
Bettina Haase: The Rockefeller University
Todd E. Katzner: U. S. Geological Survey
Jacquelyn Mountcastle: The Rockefeller University
Kresimir Mikulic: IBIS program LTD
Michelangelo Morganti: National Biodiversity Future Centre (NBFC)
Liviu G. Pârâu: Heidelberg University
Airam Rodríguez: CSIC
Maurizio Sarà: Università degli Studi di Palermo
Elisavet-Aspasia Toli: University of Ioannina
Nikos Tsiopelas: Hellenic Ornithological Society
Claudio Ciofi: Università degli Studi di Firenze
Luca Gianfranceschi: Università degli Studi di Milano
Erich D. Jarvis: The Rockefeller University
Anna Olivieri: Università degli Studi di Pavia
Konstantinos Sotiropoulos: University of Ioannina
Michael Wink: Heidelberg University
Emiliano Trucchi: Università Politecnica delle Marche
Antonio Torroni: Università degli Studi di Pavia
Diego Rubolini: Università degli Studi di Milano

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Abstract Accurately predicting species’ responses to anthropogenic climate change is hampered by limited knowledge of their spatiotemporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We combine landscape genomics, demographic reconstructions, and species distribution models to assess the eco-evolutionary responses to past climate fluctuations and to future climate of an Afro-Palaearctic migratory raptor, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). We uncover two evolutionarily and ecologically distinct lineages (European and Asian), whose demographic history, evolutionary divergence, and historical distribution range were profoundly shaped by past climatic fluctuations. Using future climate projections, we find that the Asian lineage is at higher risk of range contraction, increased migration distance, climate maladaptation, and consequently greater extinction risk than the European lineage. Our results emphasise the importance of providing historical context as a baseline for understanding species’ responses to contemporary climate change, and illustrate how incorporating intraspecific genetic variation improves the ecological realism of climate change vulnerability assessments.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58617-5

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