Unraveling overestimated exposure risks through hourly ozone retrievals from next-generation geostationary satellites

Siwei Li (), Ge Song, Jia Xing, Jiaxin Dong, Maolin Zhang, Chunying Fan, Shiyao Meng, Jie Yang, Lechao Dong and Wei Gong
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Siwei Li: Wuhan University
Ge Song: Wuhan University
Jia Xing: the University of Tennessee
Jiaxin Dong: Wuhan University
Maolin Zhang: Wuhan University
Chunying Fan: Wuhan University
Shiyao Meng: Wuhan University
Jie Yang: Wuhan University
Lechao Dong: China Meteorological Administration
Wei Gong: Wuhan University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Accurate ground-level ozone (O3) estimation is crucial for assessing health impacts and designing control strategies. Traditional polar-orbit satellites provide limited, one-time measurements, missing O3’s diurnal variability. Here, we utilize a next-generation geostationary satellite with ultraviolet capabilities to retrieve hourly O3 concentrations, achieving high accuracy (R2 = 0.94) and improving daily maximum 8-hour estimates, particularly in semi-urban areas (R2 + 0.10, error reduction >7 μg/m³). Our analysis reveals a 30% drop in O3-related health risks compared to traditional polar-orbit estimates, with the greatest impact in semi-urban and rural areas where satellite data plays an important role due to the lack of ground measurements. This suggests prior estimates may have overestimated total mortality and urban-rural spillover effects. Our findings underscore the importance of geostationary satellites in capturing O3 diurnal variability through refined hourly data on photochemical precursors and radiation, providing a scientific basis for health assessments and informing O3 pollution regulations in China.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58652-2

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