Model-based evaluation of the impact of a potential HIV cure on HIV transmission dynamics

Alfredo De Bellis (), Myrthe S. Willemsen, Giorgio Guzzetta, Ard Sighem, Kim A. G. J. Romijnders, Peter Reiss, Maarten F. Schim van der Loeff, Janneke H. H. M. Wijgert, Monique Nijhuis, Mirjam E. E. Kretzschmar and Ganna Rozhnova ()
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Alfredo De Bellis: University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University
Myrthe S. Willemsen: University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University
Giorgio Guzzetta: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Ard Sighem: Stichting HIV Monitoring
Kim A. G. J. Romijnders: University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University
Peter Reiss: Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development
Maarten F. Schim van der Loeff: Global Health and Quality of Care
Janneke H. H. M. Wijgert: University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University
Monique Nijhuis: University Medical Center Utrecht
Mirjam E. E. Kretzschmar: University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University
Ganna Rozhnova: University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract The development of an HIV cure is a global health priority, with the target product profile (TPP) for an HIV cure guiding research efforts. Using a mathematical model calibrated to data from men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands, we assessed whether an effective cure could help end the HIV epidemic. Following the TPP, we evaluated two scenarios: (i) HIV remission, where the virus is suppressed in an individual without ongoing antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may rebound, and (ii) HIV eradication, which aims to completely remove the virus from the individual. Here, we show that sustained HIV remission (without rebound) or HIV eradication could reduce new HIV infections compared to a scenario without a cure. In contrast, transient HIV remission with a risk of rebound could increase new infections if rebounds are not closely monitored, potentially undermining HIV control efforts. Our findings emphasize the critical role of cure characteristics in maximizing cure benefits for public health and highlight the need to align HIV cure research with public health objectives to end the HIV epidemic.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58657-x

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