Daily rainfall variability controls humid heatwaves in the global tropics and subtropics

Lawrence S. Jackson (), Cathryn E. Birch, Guillaume Chagnaud, John H. Marsham and Christopher M. Taylor
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Lawrence S. Jackson: University of Leeds
Cathryn E. Birch: University of Leeds
Guillaume Chagnaud: UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
John H. Marsham: University of Leeds
Christopher M. Taylor: UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Humid heatwaves are a growing risk to human and animal health, especially in tropical regions. While there is established research on dry-bulb temperature heatwaves, greater understanding of the meteorological drivers of extreme humid heat is urgently needed. In this study, we find that recent rainfall is a key control on the occurrence of humid heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics and its effect is regulated by the energy- or moisture-limited state of the land surface. In moisture-limited environments, heatwaves are likely during, or immediately after, enhanced rainfall. In energy-limited environments, heatwaves are likely after suppression of rainfall for two days or longer. The nature of the threat to health from heat stress varies by environment. It depends on local adaptation to temperature or humidity extremes, as well as vulnerability to absolute or anomalous extremes. Early warning systems, which reduce exposure and vulnerability to weather extremes, can benefit from this understanding of humid heatwave drivers, highlighting the possibility of predicting events using satellite-derived rainfall and surface moisture data.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58694-6

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