Global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions

Jiyong Lee (), Bouke Biemond, Daan Keulen, Ymkje Huismans, René M. Westen, Huib E. Swart, Henk A. Dijkstra and Wouter M. Kranenburg
Additional contact information
Jiyong Lee: Utrecht University
Bouke Biemond: Utrecht University
Daan Keulen: Deltares
Ymkje Huismans: Deltares
René M. Westen: Utrecht University
Huib E. Swart: Utrecht University
Henk A. Dijkstra: Utrecht University
Wouter M. Kranenburg: Deltares

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract In recent years, increased salt intrusion in surface waters has threatened freshwater availability in coastal regions worldwide. Yet, current future projections of salt intrusion are limited to local regions or changes to single forcing agents. Here, we quantify compounding contributions from changes in river discharge and relative sea level to changing future salt intrusion under a high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP3-7.0) for 18 estuaries around the world. We find that the annual 90th percentile future salt intrusion is projected to increase between 1.3% and 18.2% (median 9.1%) in 89% of the studied estuaries worldwide. Our analysis also indicates that, on average, sea-level rise contributes approximately two times more to increasing future salt intrusion than reduced river discharge. We further show that the return levels of present-day 100-year salt intrusion events are projected to increase between 3.2% and 25.2% (median 10.2%) in 83% of the studied estuaries.

Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58783-6 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58783-6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58783-6

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().