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Sustained freshening of Arabian Sea High Salinity Water induced by extreme precipitation events

Prasad G. Thoppil ()
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Prasad G. Thoppil: U.S. Naval Research Laboratory

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract In the northern Arabian Sea, high salinity levels are primarily sustained by year-round evaporation, driving the convective formation of Arabian Sea High Salinity Water (ASHSW) during the winter monsoon (November–February). Although precipitation has largely been discounted as a critical controlling mechanism for winter convection, recent years have seen a notable increase in extreme cyclones over the Arabian Sea, particularly in post-monsoon cyclones (September–December) since 2014. However, the extent to which these cyclone-induced freshwater inputs disrupt the region’s freshwater balance (evaporation – precipitation) and impact ASHSW formation remains unclear. Here, we present observational evidence supported by a suite of model simulation experiments, revealing a significant weakening in ASHSW formation triggered and sustained by extreme tropical cyclones. The addition of freshwater reduces the density of high-salinity water, augmenting stratification and disrupting the convective sinking process, ultimately limiting the depth of convective mixing. These findings underscore the profound implications of extreme cyclone-induced freshwater inputs.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58950-9

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