How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

Ayman Mokhtar Nemnem (), Ahad Hasan Tanim (), Audrika Nahian (), Sadik Khan (), Erfan Goharian () and Jasim Imran ()
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Ayman Mokhtar Nemnem: University of South Carolina
Ahad Hasan Tanim: University of South Carolina
Audrika Nahian: Jackson State University
Sadik Khan: Jackson State University
Erfan Goharian: University of South Carolina
Jasim Imran: University of South Carolina

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59261-9

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