Economic and environmental competitiveness of multiple hydrogen production pathways in China

Guangyao Fan, Hui Zhang, Bo Sun () and Fengwen Pan ()
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Guangyao Fan: Shandong University
Hui Zhang: Shandong University
Bo Sun: Shandong University
Fengwen Pan: Ltd.

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Abstract This study utilises the optimization method to ascertain the levelized cost of hydrogen and life cycle carbon emissions of four water electrolysis hydrogen production systems across 31 provinces and regions of China, and compares these with hydrogen production from coal, natural gas and industrial by-products. The findings indicate that the grid-connected water electrolysis hydrogen production system has low-carbon advantages only in certain provinces, and time-of-use electricity prices can improve its economic competitiveness. The off-grid water electrolysis hydrogen production system can achieve near-zero carbon emissions, although additional investment is required to configure larger capacities for electricity energy storage and hydrogen storage. Projections indicate that by 2045–2050, this system could emerge as the most cost-effective to hydrogen production, a milestone that could be advanced by 5–15 years through the implementation of specific carbon reduction incentives or production subsidies. Prior to this timeframe, hydrogen production through industry by-products emerges as a viable alternative for the development of hydrogen energy.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59412-y

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